The Disaster Investor

Survive and Thrive in Any Economy

Archive for June, 2008

Jun
17

New foreclosure-rescue legislation on way

Posted under Foreclosures, Real Estate, Short sales

 

Recent legislation currently in the works in Florida. This could spread to other states.

Bad News: This will make it harder for legitimate foreclosure consultants (shortsale, equity buyers, lease options, rehabbers, etc) to do business and save people from foreclosure.  This will not stop “equity skimmers” from continuing business as usual. If the previous penalties of jail time wasn’t enough then what would?

Good News: This will make it harder for legitimate foreclosure consultants to do business, thereby reducing your competition. So if you can overcome the limitations and have the proper systems, contracts and exit strategy, you will be able to continue business as usual.

In instituting this law regulating so called foreclosure-rescue consultants and their related equity purchasers, the Florida Legislature stated certain legislative findings, which are helpful to a judge who has to interpret the law in a specific case. The legislature found that homeowners who are in default on their mortgages, in foreclosure, may be vulnerable to fraud, deception and unfair dealings with foreclosure-rescue consultants or equity purchasers. The intent of this legislation is to help the homeowner make an informed decision regarding the sale or transfer of his or her home to an equity purchaser. The new act will now comprise the newly created FS 501.1377, and repeal the old FS 501.2078. The act is part of Florida Statutes Chapter 501, which sets out the Florida Deception and Unfair Trade Practices Act.

The term “equity purchaser” means any person who acquires legal, equitable or beneficial ownership in residential real property as a result of a foreclosure-rescue transaction. It does not apply to boat repossessions. The act does not apply to anyone who receives title from a court-ordered foreclosure sale, or from a spouse, child, parent, grandparent, sibling, or spouse of one of these. The act also does not apply to a workout between the homeowner and their lender.

The term “foreclosure-rescue consultant” is defined as a person who directly or indirectly makes a solicitation, representation or offer to a homeowner to provide or perform, in return for payment of money or other valuable consideration, foreclosure-related rescue services. It does not include those acting under authority of the federal office of Housing and Urban Development, or a 501(c)3 charity, unless the charity has contracted with a for-profit lender or foreclosure consultant. It also does not apply to a present mortgage holder or bank, or a licensed mortgage broker who only receives a mortgage brokerage fee.

Services covered under this act are any service promising assistance with stopping, avoiding, or delaying foreclosure, or curing or addressing a default in a residential mortgage.

A “foreclosure-rescue transaction” is defined as a transfer of real property to an equity purchaser while the homeowner maintains a legal or equitable interest in the property. This specifically includes a lease-option, an option to repurchase, or an interest as beneficiary or trustee of a land trust, or other interest, which I would presume would include transferring the property to a LLC.

The act requires the consultant to first have the homeowner sign a written agreement before initiating any services. The written agreement must be printed in at least 12-point uppercase type and contain certain provisions. It must be accurately dated and signed by both parties and the homeowner must be given a copy within three hours after signing. The homeowner must be provided with a copy at least the day before signing, allowing the homeowner to have it reviewed by an attorney familiar with this legislation, or to contact their lender who may offer the service for free.

The written agreement must contain the details of a right to cancel within three days and the name, address and phone number of the equity purchaser. The agreement must also contain the specific terms of the repurchase, including specific amounts of any escrow payments, down payment, purchase price, closing costs, commissions, any other fees and costs. Mary and Joe would have wished they had had this type of written agreement prior to signing over their duplex.

The equity lender cannot take the property ’subject to’ any mortgages or liens, but must specifically assume or discharge them. The agreement must also specifically include a 30-day right to cure any default, exercisable up to three times. The act also contains some rebuttable presumptions that will be useful in litigation.

If the homeowner has the right to repurchase, the equity purchaser must verify and be able to demonstrate that the homeowner has the reasonable ability to make the repurchase. There is a rebuttable presumption that the homeowner has the ability to repurchase if the homeowner’s monthly payments for primary housing expenses, plus the principal and interest of other personal debt, does not exceed 60 percent of the homeowner’s monthly gross income. Many lease options negotiated by real estate agents do not contain these safeguards. It may make sense to have the real estate agent obtain a written verification that all mortgages are current and the homeowner is not in danger of foreclosure, so as to not be affected by this legislation.

There is also a rebuttable presumption that the transaction is unconscionable if the homeowner’s repurchase price is greater than 17 percent per annum more than the price the equity purchaser paid to acquire the property. The repurchase agreement must be recorded to have the presumption not apply to subsequent purchasers or creditors. There is also a rebuttable presumption that any lease-option in the foreclosure-rescue transaction is a loan and mortgage, which means that the leasee cannot be put out of the house without going through the full circuit court foreclosure process.

The sad news about this new legislation is that it would not be of any help to Mary and Joe because it restricts applicability to the homeowner’s principal residence. It defines residential property as one-family to four-family, one of which is occupied by the owner as his or her principal place of residence. I can certainly understand why the legislature wanted to not provide this protection for the sophisticated real estate investor, but there are many retired persons who have invested their life savings in rental real estate and are potential victims of foreclosure fraud. Perhaps the law should be amended to also include individuals owning 30 or less residential rental units.

The law authorizes a penalty of $15,000 per violation. Attorneys, financial planners, real estate and mortgage brokers, in addition to those having financial problems with their mortgage, should become familiar with this legislation.

Source: http://www.news-press.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080608/BUSINESS/806080354/1014/business

Jun
14

Property-flipping rule suspended - FHA waives 90 days

Posted under Real Estate

WASHINGTON (AP) — The Bush administration is temporarily suspending a 5-year-old rule intended to deter property flippers, as part of an effort to help speed the sale of foreclosed properties.

For one year, the Federal Housing Administration will no longer impose a 90-day waiting period before foreclosed properties can be sold to receive government-backed loans.

For once, this is good news for the Disaster Investor. While we are clasping our hands for all the money to be made from disasters like Foreclosures, Subprime, and the next Alt-A Crisis, this new FHA rules will open the doors for restricted buyers to purchases homes from Investors who know how to do ShortSales, REO’s or discounted properties.

 

The bad news: Investors will be flooded with FHA buyers in which the property still will not qualify due to strict FHA guidelines on the property condition. Investors may still spend 90 days rehabbing a property so this new rule would not apply.  However, if investors buys “pretty houses” with minimal work, then that investor can sell that house much faster.

 

We have received contract offers on houses just days after being on the market only to be denied because the homeowner did not tell us the truth about having a FHA approved loan.

 

So with this news: Go out and get some pre-foreclosures! It’s lucrative if you know how to buy them!

Source: http://money.cnn.com/2008/06/13/real_estate/property_flipping.ap/index.htm?section=money_latest

Source: http://www.inman.com/news/2008/06/13/fha-waives-90-day-waiting-period-resales

 

Jun
06

Mr. Mortgage Says There Is 4.25 Years’ Supply in CA

Posted under Foreclosures, Housing Bubble, Real Estate, Recession

In this video, Mr. Mortgage states that the California housing market has reached 4.25 years of supply.

He makes a lot of assumptions in this analysis, but if he’s right about the increasing number of foreclosures and the slim number of non-REO sales taking place, the California housing market will continue to be a scary place for quite some time.

Take a look at the debate going on at his Web site if you want to see other people’s perspectives on his video.

Jun
04

FDIC: Troubled Real Estate Loans Trigger Higher Provisions for Losses, Weaker Profits

Posted under Recession

On May 29, the FDIC issued a press release indicating concern that more loan losses are accentuating the credit stress already felt in the market.

Restatements of fourth-quarter 2007 profits by a few institutions, primarily reflecting additional charges for goodwill impairment, reduced industry earnings for that quarter from the $5.8 billion previously reported to $646 million. That is the lowest quarterly net income for the industry since insured institutions posted an aggregate net loss in the fourth quarter of 1990….

Noncurrent loans are still rising sharply. Loans that were noncurrent (90 days or more past due or in nonaccrual status) increased by $26 billion (or 24 percent) to $136 billion during the first quarter. That followed a $27 billion increase in the fourth quarter of 2007. Almost 90 percent of the increase in noncurrent loans in the first quarter consisted of real estate loans, but noncurrent levels increased in all major loan categories. At the end of the first quarter, 1.7 percent of the industry’s loans and leases were noncurrent.

Earnings remain burdened by high provisions for loan losses. Rising levels of troubled loans, particularly in real estate portfolios, led many institutions to increase their provisions for loan losses in the quarter. Loss provisions totaled $37.1 billion, more than four times the $9.2 billion the industry set aside in the first quarter of 2007. Almost a quarter of the industry’s net operating revenue (net interest income plus total noninterest income) went to building up loan-loss reserves.

The industry’s “coverage” ratio — its loss reserves as a percentage of nonperforming loans — continued to erode. Loan-loss reserves increased by $18.5 billion (18.1 percent), the largest quarterly increase in more than 20 years, but the larger increase in noncurrent loans meant that the coverage ratio fell from 93 cents in reserves for every $1.00 of noncurrent loans to 89 cents, the lowest level since 1993. “This is a worrisome trend,” Chairman Bair said. “It’s the kind of thing that gives regulators heartburn.”

The early 1990’s were an optimum time to buy loans and discounted real estate. That time will come again soon.

She added, “The banks and thrifts we’re keeping an eye on most are those with high levels of exposure to subprime and nontraditional mortgages, with concentrations of construction loans in overbuilt markets, and institutions that get a large share of their revenues from market-related activities, such as from securities trading.”

The FDIC’s Deposit Insurance Fund (DIF) reserve ratio fell. The DIF increased by $430 million (0.8 percent) during the first quarter, ending with a balance of $52.8 billion. The growth in the DIF, which was restrained by loss provisions of $525 million, did not keep pace with the quarter’s $140.5 billion (3.3 percent) increase in insured deposits. As a result, the fund’s reserve ratio declined from 1.22 percent to 1.19 percent during the quarter. Total deposits of FDIC-insured institutions increased by $150.4 billion (1.8 percent). Deposits in domestic offices rose by $156.2 billion (2.3 percent), while deposits in foreign offices declined by $5.8 billion (0.4 percent).

In particular:

The FDIC cited higher provisions for loan losses as the primary reason for the drop in industry profits….

Almost a quarter of the industry’s net operating revenue (net interest income plus total noninterest income) went to building up loan-loss reserves.

With banks’ money tied up in this way, the money to refinance poorly performing loans is becoming even less available.

It will be time to buy when there is blood in the streets. The wounds are getting harder and harder to bind.

Jun
30

Bank News, Bank Failures & Warren Buffett

Posted under Bank News Snippets

FIXED INCOME & RATES:

Friday: Yields fell 4bp, amid weak equities and rumors of a

regional bank failure. Bank asset sales were evident throughout

the industry, as financial firms struggle to bring capital ratios back

in line. Today: Crude oil at $142 per barrel and general fear are

keeping the markets jumpy. Most banks are focused on quarter end

and will not be active today. Yields are up 4bp.

BANK NEWS:

M&A: BancIndependent ($778mm, AL) will purchase Citizens

Bancorp of Lawrence ($115mm, AL) for an undisclosed sum.

FRB Confirmation: The Senate confirmed Betsy Duke as a

Fed Governor. She will become the only Fed governor with

commercial banking experience.

Bank Credit: Weekly bank credit reported to the Fed has

fallen 9.1% on an annualized, seasonal basis. This is the

fastest rate of decline in the history of the series.

Marketing Campaign: Online video contests are being used

as marketing tools aimed at the 20-something demographic.

Top entries often win prizes such as matching deposits, grants

or job offers. One bank used a video contest to find its

spokesperson, while promoting the company through user generated

websites, like Facebook and Twitter.

Equities: The Dow is down 14.5% this year and banks are

down an average of 32% compared to last year. Most large

and regional banks are trading between their 10Y and 20Y low.

Economy Getting Worse: Billionaire investor Warren Buffett

said last week that he thinks the economy is not only in a

recession, but is getting worse.

 

 

Source: Bank News Daily

Jun
27

Bank News, Countrywide Jobs & Writedowns

Posted under Bank News Snippets

ECONOMY:

Personal Spending (0.4% est.; 0.3% prior; 1.9% act.):

Spending rose more than forecasted, as tax rebates propelled

the biggest gain in personal income in 3Ys (up 1.9% vs. a

0.4% estimate). The PCE Deflator component, a key measure

of inflation, came it at forecasts, but at a slightly inflationary

3.1%.

FIXED INCOME & RATES:

Yesterday: After benign GDP data, oil spiked to $140 a barrel

and equities went into a free fall. Bank stocks took a bath and

money moved into bonds. Yields went down 12bp. The palpable

change in sentiment made many bankers rethink the assertion

that rates will eventually rise this year. Today: Despite a positive

personal spending report, the market believes credit risk is not

subsiding. A front page WSJ article on the need for more capital

at banks doesn’t help. Deleveraging continues to be the rage, as

hedge funds, banks and investment houses continue to tactically

sell assets. Lower stock futures are currently pushing Treasury

yields down 4bp.

BANK NEWS:

M&A: Northern Trust ($79.5B, IL) will buy regional investment

manager Lakepoint Investment Partners (OH) for an

undisclosed sum. Lakepoint has $586mm in assets under

management and works with individual investors, corporations

and foundations.

More Writedowns: An analyst at Lehman said it is likely

Merrill Lynch will take a $5.4B write down in 2Q, as the

company takes further losses in asset-backed and

collateralized debt obligations. Meanwhile, insurance giant AIG

said it would absorb losses on its insurance units totaling $5B.

Job Cuts: Bank of America will cut 7,500 jobs over 2Ys

following its acquisition of Countrywide. Given a combined

mortgage and home equity workforce of 60k, the layoffs

amount to roughly 12.5% of workers in those groups.

GSE Trouble: FNMA reported home loans past due 90 days or

more that it guarantees climbed to 1.22%, double the rate of

the prior year. Meanwhile, FHLMC also reported a worsening

situation, at 0.81%, compared to 0.40% at the same time last

year. Both GSEs reported about 6% higher delinquency rates

compared to the prior month, as well.

 

 

 

Source: Bank News Daily

Jun
26

Bank News and Higher Funding Costs

Posted under Bank News Snippets

ECONOMY:

GDP (1.0% est.; 0.9% prior; 1.0% act.): Final 1Q GDP came

in as expected. The report shows inflation in check, a little less

inventory build and higher consumption. The report has the

potential to be slightly positive for 2Q GDP.

FOMC OUTCOME:

The FOMC acted as expected, leaving the Fed Funds target

and discount rates unchanged. The policy statement was also

predictable, as the Fed said it sees greater upside risk to inflation

than previously believed. Despite the jawboning, they stopped

short of signaling a timetable or even a commitment to hike rates.

Our prediction for the long term is that the Fed will continue to

watch and wait for longer than the market expects.

The intermediate-term outcome is not positive for community

banks, as the inflationary bias will serve to push long-term rates

up, without a corresponding increase in Prime. The result will be

higher funding costs for the next several months and lower

earnings. For those starting on 2009 budgets, note that Fed

Funds is expected to average 3.11% next year.

FIXED INCOME & RATES:

Yesterday: Yields stepped down 4bp, amid an FOMC policy

statement that was only slightly less hawkish than expected.

Today: After GDP and other data, yields are down 7bp.

BANK NEWS:

M&A: Community Bank ($4.7B, NY) will acquire 18 Citizens

Financial (Royal Bank of Canada) branches in New York State.

Citizens said they are selling the branches in a strategic shift to

larger metro areas. The deal reportedly includes $630mm in

deposits (for a 12% premium) and $135mm in loans.

M&A: Wilmington Trust has agreed to purchase UBS Fiduciary

Trust Co. from UBS AG for an undisclosed amount.

Standardized Basel II: The FDIC approved an interagency

proposal that gives banks the option of adopting alternative

risk-based capital adequacy rules based on Basel II. These

“standardized” rules would be less complex to implement than

the “advanced” requirement, but would better align risk with

capital requirements and boost risk management practices.

Radian Asset Assurance: Moody’s lowered their rating on

this municipal bond 3 notches to “A3.” This will cause a

permanent impairment at many banks.

Jun
20

Bank News, Fed Power, 400 Mortgage Fraud Charges

Posted under Bank News Snippets

FIXED INCOME & RATES:

Yesterday: Yields jumped 8bp, amid higher equities, lower oil

prices and better than expected jobless claims. That information,

plus a big bucket of upcoming Treasury supply pushed yields

upward. Today: Yields have blasted 11bp lower, as investors

react aggressively to news of military exercises in Israel and

downgrades by Moody’s of MBIA and AMBAC. Investors

continue to worry banks will have to write down assets even

further in the months to come.

BANK NEWS:

M&A: Wells Fargo will acquire Farmers State Bank of Fort

Morgan ($145mm, CO) for an undisclosed amount.

Fed Power: Treasury Secretary Paulson is calling for the Fed

to assume more power. He asserts that while the Fed is tasked

with the safety of the financial system, it has relatively little

statutory authority to regulate and no mandate.

Can-Spam: New federal regulations go into effect in July, so

banks should be doing final checks to ensure compliance.

Single action (“one click”) opt-out and a discernable sender are

part of the new requirements.

Phone Service: MasterCard plans to roll out a Person-to-

Person (P-to-P) service in 2009 that would allow electronic

money transfers between individuals. MasterCard intends to

link the service to mobile phones and funds could be drawn

from debit, credit, pre-paid or checking accounts.

Federal Charges: In a span of 3.5 months, 400 people have

been charged for mortgage fraud by federal prosecutors.

Access to Fed Loans: FRB Board Vice Chairman Kohn

advocates permanent access to loans from the central bank to

Wall Street securities firms. He said regulation needs to better

pair Primary Dealer vulnerability to liquidity pressures. His

comments extend beyond those of Fed Chairman Bernanke,

who said the central bank would close lending to investment

banks after the credit crisis.

Painful Trend: Experts say FNMA and FHLMC will likely post

further losses in coming quarters, as the housing market

deteriorates further.

 

 

 

 

Source: Bank News Daily

Jun
19

Bank News, Stats and Foreclosures

Posted under Bank News Snippets

ECONOMY:

Philly Fed (-10.0 est.; -15.6mm prior; -17.1 act.):

Manufacturing in PA slipped more than expected, as

businesses cut production.

FIXED INCOME & RATES:

Yesterday: Yields dropped 5bp, driven by a weaker equities

market and lower corporate earnings. Today: Yields are up 4bp

as investors continue to push the needle toward the sign marked

“FOMC rate hike.” Despite the slight increase in yields, banks are

expected to be relatively quiet.

BANK NEWS:

Overdraft Fees: A report by the Center for Responsible

Lending found that Americans over 54Y are charged $4.5B a

year in overdraft fee services they do not want. Over 20% of

these fees are paid by those dependent on social security

income. In 2006, $17.5B was collected from Americans. Most

were associated with debit card transactions which charge

over $1.50 for every dollar advanced.

FDIC Rule: The FDIC is now requiring system upgrades for

159 institutions. Banks will need to keep customer databases

inline with the agency’s and capacity to freeze deposits when

resolutions are being processed. Banks are estimated to

spend between $2mm to $10mm in these upgrades.

Receivership Program: The FDIC expressed its willingness to

oversee a receivership program for failed investment banks.

FDIC Chairman Bair urged for stricter regulations and

procedures, beyond the bankruptcy process.

 

Businesses with $100k to $500k in annual revenues make an

average of 28 deposits per day. Recent studies show remote

capture can reduce this branch activity by up to 20%.

Nearly 40% of banks now offer online loan applications to be

completed by customers.

The three biggest areas banks say they expect to see costs

rise significantly this year are technology, compliance and

healthcare benefits for employees.

Banks with lending exposures to the hospitality, restaurant,

airline or other vacation-related sectors should take note that

39% of consumers are considering cutting back their vacation

plans this year, 31% plan to eat out less and 58% said they will

drive less. We are already seeing some of the higher-end

hotels and restaurant chains cut rates or begin to offer summer

specials in an effort to boost sales.

Large banks recently increased the number of times a day that

a customer can be hit with an overdraft fee from 5 to 7. They

also increased the fee they charged from about $20 to $25.

Americans own 1.5B credit cards or about 9 per credit card

holder. At the end of the 1Q, credit card debt soared 6.7% and

delinquencies reached 4.9% (highest level in 4Ys). Meanwhile,

card balances have risen 9% over the past year.

The top 3 bank holding company credit card portfolios (Citi,

BofA, JP) added together totaled $222B as of the 3Q of 2007.

This is significant because it would take the combined total of

the next 23 biggest to equal half that amount.

Analysis finds that there are 1.3mm homes in the foreclosure

process or about 27% of the inventory of unsold homes. One

year ago the number was 18%. Perhaps even worse, it takes

about a year for foreclosures to make their way to the market,

so 2009 could also be bumpy.

Goldman Sachs predicts banks will need to raise $65B in

additional capital as losses and writedowns are expected to

continue through early 2009.

S&P projects commercial construction will fall 16% this year

and 9% in 2009. By sector, the rating agency said office

construction is the least susceptible to a slowdown, while

hotels and multifamily are probably the most vulnerable.

Banking regulators are encouraging banks to cut dividends in

an effort to rebuild capital and reserves. This year, nearly 20

banks have cut dividends, more than the prior 5Ys combined.

Studies find about 49% of small businesses plan to change

their ownership within the next 3Ys.

About 28% of entrepreneurs say they will need additional

capital or a loan in the next 6 months.

A recent survey finds only 40% of banks have a formal budget

set aside to educate directors.

As of the end of 2007, the average community bank was

getting about 10% of its funding through wholesale sources.

More than 40% of retirees use email to correspond with their

financial institution at least 1x per month.

Roughly 33% of retirees found their primary bank by walking

into a branch. Meanwhile, 30% said they were referred to their

bank by someone they know.

Studies show the average bank branch is only running at about

33% of capacity. Experts say aggressive bank branching

strategies over the years have resulted in about 3x as many

branches as is needed to support customer demand.

Studies find online savings accounts are being opened 1.5x

more frequently than in-branch accounts.

As we get back to work, we ponder what the next phase of

community banking and the moon (the waxing gibbious phase

or where the moon is more than half illuminated), will bring us.

 

 

 

Source: Bank Investment Daily

Jun
18

Bank News & FICO

Posted under Bank News Snippets

ECONOMY:

No material economic data scheduled for release today.

FIXED INCOME & RATES:

Yesterday: Yields dropped 12bp, as investor sentiment

increased that the FRB would not raise rates this year. Banks

fled to the sidelines to wait out the carnage, preferring instead to

work on funding issues. Today: Yields slid 3bp, as speculation

continued to percolate that the FRB would not raise rates

anytime soon. Banks are once again expected to be largely quiet

given lower overall yield levels.

BANK NEWS:

Basel Draft: The Basel Committee published draft guidance to

increase supervision and management of liquidity risks. The 17

proposed principles emphasize broadened stress tests and

improving how banks measure off balance sheet risks.

FICO Products: In response to FICO score criticisms, Fair

Isaac is creating alternative products specifically for

mortgages. FICO scores and data from alternative sources will

be used to measure default risk. Mortgage lenders have

reduced the weight of FICO scores in underwriting and are

focusing now more on other consumer data.

Mobile Banking: A report by IMS research, expects mobile

banking to expand to over 880mm users worldwide, conducting

62B mobile transactions by 2012. Today’s mobile banking

consumers check balances, pay bills and transfer funds.

Robbery: After hitting lows, due to the economy, robberies this

year are on the rise. In some towns, the number of robberies

has already exceeded their total in 2007. According to the FBI,

robbers on average run off with approximately $10k in cash,

checks and other property.

Matchmaking: Consumers can now use moneyaisle.com to

bid on rates and terms of savings accounts and CDs.

Participating banks set rates and terms they are willing to offer.

Online Security: ING Bank is now providing security software

to online banking customers. The software encrypts

information between the customer’s pc and the bank’s website,

preventing external programs from accessing data. Consumers

value this additional security according to a Gartner survey,

which found over 75% of people rank extra security as “very”

or “extremely” important in deciding to bank online.